{"id":147217,"date":"2025-09-17T00:40:52","date_gmt":"2025-09-17T03:40:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/infoecos.com.ar\/?p=147217"},"modified":"2025-09-27T01:32:18","modified_gmt":"2025-09-27T04:32:18","slug":"claves-del-presupuesto-2026-informe-del-centro-de-economia-politica-argentina","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/infoecos.com.ar\/index.php\/claves-del-presupuesto-2026-informe-del-centro-de-economia-politica-argentina\/","title":{"rendered":"Claves del Presupuesto 2026: informe del Centro de Econom\u00eda Pol\u00edtica Argentina"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1200\" height=\"601\" src=\"https:\/\/infoecos.com.ar\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-124.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-147219\" srcset=\"https:\/\/infoecos.com.ar\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-124.png 1200w, https:\/\/infoecos.com.ar\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-124-800x401.png 800w, https:\/\/infoecos.com.ar\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-124-300x150.png 300w, https:\/\/infoecos.com.ar\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-124-768x385.png 768w, https:\/\/infoecos.com.ar\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-124-1024x513.png 1024w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Blindaje fiscal: el Presupuesto apunta a mantener el super\u00e1vit financiero. En concreto: si se crece y mejora la recaudaci\u00f3n respecto a lo previsto en el presupuesto, se bajan impuestos. Si cae la econom\u00eda y se recauda menos de lo previsto, se ajustan las partidas de gasto discrecional. Este gasto incluye, por ejemplo, salud y educaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Las principales proyecciones macroecon\u00f3micas se encuentran fuertemente desfasadas. Las proyecciones de crecimiento e inflaci\u00f3n no se condicen con las proyecciones privadas. Pero en lo referido al tipo de cambio la situaci\u00f3n es aun mas llamativa: proyecta un d\u00f3lar de $1470, el valor al que cotiza en estos d\u00edas, a diciembre de 2027.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Los datos se agravan porque estiman d\u00e9ficit comercial de casi USD 16.500 millones. Es decir, el d\u00f3lar mantendr\u00eda dos a\u00f1os y medio el valor actual pero sin inyecci\u00f3n de d\u00f3lares por saldo comercial.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pareciera que el presupuesto fue elaborado a principios de julio de 2025, es decir, antes de las tensiones cambiarias de julio y agosto.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Los motores para asegurar objetivos: exportaciones, inversiones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Se estima un crecimiento para 2025 de 5,4% y de 5,0% para 2026. Los pron\u00f3sticos son mejores que los del REM y de dif\u00edcil cumplimiento dado los datos recientes de evoluci\u00f3n de la actividad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>El presupuesto prev\u00e9 d\u00e9ficit comercial importante. \u00bfC\u00f3mo se financia? \u00bfPor qu\u00e9 no hay una regla similar a la fiscal para esto?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Las exportaciones muestran niveles dif\u00edciles de lograr: se pretenden exportar USD 112.695 millones en 2026, r\u00e9cord absoluto en la historia argentina. Adem\u00e1s, la estimaci\u00f3n para 2025 supera ampliamente las proyecciones.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Prev\u00e9 una reducci\u00f3n sensible de la inflaci\u00f3n para 2025 en adelante. La previsi\u00f3n para 2025 implica una evoluci\u00f3n de 1,0% mensual hasta fin de a\u00f1o. Para 2026 implicar\u00eda 0,8% mensual.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div data-wp-interactive=\"core\/file\" class=\"wp-block-file\"><object data-wp-bind--hidden=\"!state.hasPdfPreview\"  class=\"wp-block-file__embed\" data=\"https:\/\/infoecos.com.ar\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/presupuesto2026.pdf\" type=\"application\/pdf\" style=\"width:100%;height:600px\" aria-label=\"Incrustado de presupuesto2026.\"><\/object><a id=\"wp-block-file--media-a224cb8c-dbc3-499a-b34b-82dcd5123541\" href=\"https:\/\/infoecos.com.ar\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/presupuesto2026.pdf\">presupuesto2026<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/infoecos.com.ar\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/presupuesto2026.pdf\" class=\"wp-block-file__button wp-element-button\" download aria-describedby=\"wp-block-file--media-a224cb8c-dbc3-499a-b34b-82dcd5123541\">Descarga<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>El Presupuesto apunta a mantener el super\u00e1vit financiero. En concreto: si se crece y mejora la recaudaci\u00f3n respecto a lo previsto en el presupuesto, se bajan impuestos. Si cae la econom\u00eda y se recauda menos de lo previsto, se ajustan las partidas de gasto discrecional. Este gasto incluye, por ejemplo, salud y educaci\u00f3n<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":126148,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[10298],"class_list":["post-147217","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-sin-categoria","tag-bloque-inferior"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Claves del Presupuesto 2026: informe del Centro de Econom\u00eda Pol\u00edtica Argentina - Infoecos<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/infoecos.com.ar\/index.php\/claves-del-presupuesto-2026-informe-del-centro-de-economia-politica-argentina\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Claves del Presupuesto 2026: informe del Centro de Econom\u00eda Pol\u00edtica Argentina - Infoecos\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"El Presupuesto apunta a mantener el super\u00e1vit financiero. 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