{"id":155260,"date":"2026-03-19T01:24:24","date_gmt":"2026-03-19T04:24:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/infoecos.com.ar\/?p=155260"},"modified":"2026-03-19T01:24:24","modified_gmt":"2026-03-19T04:24:24","slug":"155260","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/infoecos.com.ar\/index.php\/155260\/","title":{"rendered":""},"content":{"rendered":"\n
El conflicto en Medio Oriente domina la din\u00e1mica de los mercados globales y desplaza a los fundamentos tradicionales. Dante Romano, profesor e investigador del Centro de Agronegocios y Alimentos de la Universidad Austral<\/strong>, analiza c\u00f3mo la suba de la energ\u00eda, la volatilidad y las tensiones geopol\u00edticas reconfiguran el escenario para los granos.
\u00bfPor qu\u00e9 el conflicto en Medio Oriente es hoy el principal factor del mercado?<\/strong>
\u201cEl conflicto b\u00e9lico pas\u00f3 a dominar los mercados en general, y su influencia en los granos es innegable. El resto de los fundamentos qued\u00f3 en un segundo plano\u201d, explica Romano.
\u00bfQu\u00e9 est\u00e1 pasando con la energ\u00eda?<\/strong>
El petr\u00f3leo Brent subi\u00f3 11% en la semana y lleg\u00f3 a superar los 119 d\u00f3lares en los momentos de mayor tensi\u00f3n.
\u201cSi bien hubo intentos por frenar la suba, las se\u00f1ales contradictorias mantienen el riesgo y la tendencia alcista\u201d, se\u00f1ala.Adem\u00e1s, la volatilidad creci\u00f3 19%, el gas natural avanz\u00f3 9% y la urea 7%. El oro subi\u00f3 3% y el d\u00f3lar se fortaleci\u00f3 casi 2%.
\u00bfC\u00f3mo reaccionaron los granos?<\/strong>
Los commodities agr\u00edcolas tambi\u00e9n subieron, aunque en menor medida, con incrementos cercanos al 3%.
En paralelo, los fondos financieros aumentaron su posici\u00f3n comprada en 6,5 millones de toneladas, alcanzando 91 millones.
\u201cEsto muestra una mayor cobertura frente a la incertidumbre global\u201d, indica Romano.
\u00bfLas medidas para contener los precios est\u00e1n funcionando?<\/strong>
Estados Unidos habilit\u00f3 el uso temporal de petr\u00f3leo ruso y la Agencia Internacional de la Energ\u00eda liber\u00f3 reservas r\u00e9cord.
\u201cSe esperaba un impacto m\u00e1s fuerte, pero termin\u00f3 siendo m\u00e1s psicol\u00f3gico que efectivo\u201d, afirma.
\u00bfQu\u00e9 rol juega la tensi\u00f3n geopol\u00edtica?<\/strong>
Estados Unidos intensifica su presi\u00f3n militar sobre Ir\u00e1n, mientras que este pa\u00eds responde con ataques regionales y amenazas sobre el estrecho de Ormuz.
\u201cEl riesgo sobre el suministro energ\u00e9tico global sigue siendo alto\u201d, advierte Romano.
\u00bfPor qu\u00e9 el mercado de fertilizantes es clave en este contexto?<\/strong>
El conflicto afecta directamente a la producci\u00f3n en el Golfo, una regi\u00f3n clave en la oferta global.
\u201cCasi la mitad de la urea mundial sale de esta zona, y a diferencia del petr\u00f3leo, no hay grandes reservas estrat\u00e9gicas\u201d, explica.
\u00bfHabr\u00e1 problemas de abastecimiento?<\/strong>
En Estados Unidos y Canad\u00e1 se proyectan d\u00e9ficits de entre 25% y 35% en fertilizantes, especialmente para aplicaciones posteriores a la siembra.
Rusia no logra compensar la falta global, mientras que China liber\u00f3 reservas para asegurar su producci\u00f3n.
\u00bfQu\u00e9 pa\u00edses est\u00e1n m\u00e1s expuestos?<\/strong>
Brasil aparece como uno de los m\u00e1s vulnerables por su alta dependencia de fertilizantes importados.
\u201cEl problema no es solo conseguirlos, sino el precio, que est\u00e1 fuertemente presionado por el contexto internacional\u201d, se\u00f1ala Romano.
\u00bfQu\u00e9 pasa con los costos log\u00edsticos?<\/strong>
El conflicto tambi\u00e9n impacta en los fletes: el transporte mar\u00edtimo desde Brasil hacia China subi\u00f3 24% en marzo, reflejando mayores tensiones en la log\u00edstica global.
\u00bfPuede haber impacto desde la relaci\u00f3n entre EE.UU. y China?<\/strong>
Las negociaciones entre ambos pa\u00edses vuelven a cobrar relevancia.
\u201cLa posibilidad de nuevas compras de soja por parte de China, aunque no confirmada, ya impuls\u00f3 los precios en Chicago\u201d, concluye Romano.<\/td><\/tr>
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